6 things to look out for when betting on football

Form of teams

One of the most important factors. Teams that are successful are playing with greater self-esteem and happiness . Let's recall, for example, the season 2015/2016 English Premier League and the surprising title of Leicester, a team that in the 2014/2015 season just narrowly escaped the descent ...

In the form of teams, it is important to choose the correct number of matches to be considered. One match is low, 10 is too much. In our analysis we count on the last 5 matches . We scored 333 matches after the data analysis, with both teams counting the average X win points. See Table.

Average number of points earned / match in team form

Form in joint matches

Another important factor is the form in joint matches . Even a team that has lost 5 games in a row can show an equal (better) game against the front row club. An example is Sigma Olomouc, who after a great season 2017/2018 and a relatively successful performance in European Cups in the season 2018/2019, plays in the league strongly below expectations and after 11 rounds has only 9 points in his account .... Still, she managed to defeat Sparta, who seemed to be getting back to the summit under the Coach. The miserable Sparty game in Olomouc shows that the journey to the top started by the unfortunate start (and throw) of Andrea Stramaccioni continues ...

A comparison of the last 5 matches of Sparta and Olomouc (friendly match Sparta and Polna will not be taken into consideration, the friend has absolutely no weight). If we were to follow only the last 5 games, it would be that Sparta is a favorite , given that Sigma from 5 matches managed to score only with the tricky Dukla and the second-league Tricce.

Forma Sigma Olomouc

Form Sparta

But the situation changes when we look at the common games . The last 3 games ended with a tight result and two times with Sigma they managed to defeat Sparta .

As with teams, we have done a data analysis and here are the results.

Average number of points earned / match in form of joint matches

Teams usually play 2 or more games in one season. Taking into account more matches of the older date is of little importance with regard to the coaching coaches and the overall rebuilding of the teams during the transition periods.

Influence of absence

It is not easy to determine the influence of players' absence on team play. When analyzing, you need to carefully read the team's report . Find out what alternatives are available for missing players and do not overlook the role of the individual in the team. Football is a team game, and top teams usually have high quality footbaths . But it is very individual.

For example, Paul Pogba is a difference player in Manchester United, and without it the Red Devils lack a spark, Neymar is a key player in Paris Saint-Germain, but PSG has very good alternatives in attack (Edison Cavani, Kylian Mbappé, Angel Di Maria, etc. ...) who can represent him very well.

Effect of fatigue

Fatigue is the same as in absences, it is necessary to take into account the width of the cadre and the overall load of the players , especially the key players . Long distance travel, for example, in Champions League matches or the European League, plays a role.

Impact of the home environment

The impact of the domestic environment could be controversial. E.g. players in Opava, who support an average of 1267 spectators in the home stadium, will not be driven as Slavie players, which average more than 13,000 spectators in Eden. But less than thirteen hundred are still better than 51 spectators who arrived at the Blšan and Jablonec games in 2003 to create the record of the Czech football league in the lowest number of visitors ...

We were not sure whether or not the home environment is affected and so we conducted a data analysis, see the table:

Impact of the home environment

It shows that the domestic environment has a positive influence on the team.

Influence of motivation

In motivation, it is important to distinguish the competition as part of the game. In general, home cups do not have the meaning of a European Cup and are therefore weaker . This is mainly due to the prestige and financial evaluation of the competitions . However, for teams from the center of the table, the home cups can also be interesting, given that the home cup winner has a guaranteed participation in European Cups (see Zlín in the season 2017/2018). That's why you need to find out about the competition as much information as possible .

Teams from the English Premier League usually play these competitions (sorted by prestige). With a large number of matches and a limited number of players (up to 25 players), the trainers are happy to give Carabao a cup of youth space. Be careful!

  1. Champions League / European League - European Cups
  2. Premier League - Major League
  3. FA Cup - Soccer Cup
  4. Carabao Cup - League Cup


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